مقایسۀ روش‌های تخمین نقطه‌ای و شبیه‌سازی مونت کارلو در حل پخش توان بهینۀ احتمالاتی با لحاظ عدم قطعیت‌های منابع تجدیدپذیر

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد کرمانشاه

2 دانشگاه رازی

3 دانشگاه آزاذ اسلامی

چکیده

نفوذ روزافزون انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر با توجه به عدم قطعیت‌های ناشی از آن‌ها، سبب بروز تغییراتی در ابزار‌های مرسوم برنامه‌ریزی و بهره‌برداری سیستم‌های قدرت شده است. تغییرات احتمالاتی توان هنگام نفوذ انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر به‌وسیلۀ پخش توان قطعی نمی‌توانند تحلیل شوند، زیرا انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر همواره دارای عدم قطعیت‌هایی می‌باشند. پخش توان بهینۀ احتمالاتی یکی از ابزار‌های مفید برای تجزیه و تحلیل سیستم‌های قدرت در شرایط حضور عدم قطعیت‌هاست. هدف از این مقاله بررسی اثرات عدم قطعیت‌های انرژی بادی و نیروگاه خورشیدی روی یک شبکۀ نمونۀ استاندارد با استفاده از روش پخش توان بهینۀ احتمالاتی است. در این مقاله، سیستم استاندارد 89 شینه PEGASE اروپاست. از جمله نوآوری‌های این مقاله مقایسۀ روش‌های شبیه‌سازی مونت کارلو و تحلیلی مشتمل بر روش‌های تخمین نقطه‌ای است. تحلیل و مقایسه نتایج نشان می‌دهد که در روش‌های تحلیلی به‌دلیل اینکه از نقاط کمتری برای بهینه‌سازی استفاده می‌شود، پخش توان بهینه سریع‌تر محاسبه می‌شود؛ که این موضوع سبب افزایش بهره‌وری محاسبه خواهد شد. نتایج مقایسۀ اجرای روش‌های مذکور روی سیستم نمونه 89 شینه نشان‌دهندۀ کاهش تقریبی زمان محاسبه به میزان تقریبی 92 و 93 درصد به‌ترتیب در مورد روش‌های تخمین دو و سه‌نقطه‌ای نسبت به روش مونت کارلو می‌باشد. این در حالی است که نتیجۀ حاصل از انجام پخش توان بهینه با روش‌های فوق تفاوت‌های تقریباً قابل اغماضی را به‌ترتیب به میزان 5/2 درصد کاهشی و افزایشی تجربه می‌کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


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