Using system dynamics approach to identify factors affecting energy consumption and CO2 emissions in urban transport: A Case Study of Tehran

Authors

Abstract

The current trend of rising energy consumption in the world has hit mankind with two major crises: environmental pollution and the acceleration of finishing energy supplies. Energy storage and the reduction of pollutants in cities play crucial roles in the process of maintaining existing energy. Meanwhile, the transportation sector needs attention due to its importance and position since the reduction of energy consumption, of adverse environmental effects as well as of travel time and unwanted delays can annually result in significant economic savings both for the public and for governments. Therefore, in the present research, the most important parameters of environmental pollutant emissions in urban transport sector were determined, and the model of system dynamics of Tehran's urban transport was developed. Based on a quantitative analysis, six scenarios_ business ss usual, priority to the development of public transport, technical progress, administrative rules and regulations management, travel demand management, and comprehensive policy_ are evolved. According to the results, CP scenario has the best performance, and in simultaneously implementon of the scenarios, each of them will play a role in the improvement of the situation and in the significant reduction of energy consumption and CO2 emissions.

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